If you have been watching Gold Prices, you know that it has been on a roller coaster ride. Is gold getting ready to hit the $1500 dollar an oz bench mark? The following article will shed some light on this topic.
I cover stocks, commodities and forex markets.
Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own.
Following several years of significant price weakness, gold appears to be well-and-truly back!
The yellow metal’s 12-year bull run came to a spectacular end in 2013, prompting many market experts to warn of a painful collapse in the years ahead.
Gold had shed a third of its value during the course of 2013, but that was just the beginning — indeed, bullion prices came within a whisker of moving back into triple digits just last December, and represented a far cry from the record highs above $1,900 struck back in 2011.
But metal prices are firmly back on the charge. Just this month, gold galloped to 21-month peaks around $1,370 per ounce as investors rushed to safety on the back of the ‘Brexit’ vote. The commodity has gained almost a quarter in value since the beginning of 2016.
And many analysts believe bullion is yet to run out of steam.
The boffins over at UBS , for example, have hiked their average price forecast for 2017, from $1,250 per ounce to $1,400. And they expect prices to keep charging through to the end of the decade, with averages of $1,450, $1,475 and $1,500 per ounce chalked in for 2018, 2019 and 2020 respectively.
UBS cites rising macroeconomic risks, low real interest rates, and a decline in the dollar versus emerging market currencies as major price catalysts for gold.
Indeed, the greenback’s demise has been the significant driver for many commodities in 2016. The US dollar index remains down on January’s starting point of 99.65, with hopes of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes evaporating as the year has progressed.
Central Bank Support
Positive housing start data Stateside has caused the local currency to jump to four-month peaks this week. But on the whole, the economic picture in the US remains patchy, and the Fed could maintain its doveish course for some time to come.
Meanwhile, many other central banks are tipped to embark on further stimulus measures to keep their economies afloat, a scenario that would provide gold with additional fuel.
The Bank of England is widely expected to cut rates to fresh lows as soon as August as the Brexit fallout begins to bite. And the European Central Bank could be forced into extend
ing its monetary assistance should economic contagion begin to spread.
The Bank of Japan is also predicted to turn the money pumps back on at next week’s meeting as the country still battles to generate growth.
Although stock markets may still be lifting off — the S&P 500 has hit fresh peaks above 2,166 points just yesterday — there is still plenty of macroeconomic turmoil to keep investors diversifying in gold, in my opinion.
The potentially-seismic impact of Britain’s withdrawal from the EU; fresh signs of an economic ‘hard landing’ in China; and an uneven economic recovery in the States mean that ‘safe haven’ assets like bullion should continue to remain in vogue.
And some commentators believe that the yellow metal is still looking historically underbought, leaving the path clear for further hefty gains. Indeed, UBS notes that “despite the very strong inflows into gold ETFs in the year to date, global holdings are still some distance away from record highs.”
I wouldn’t rule out further sizeable gold price gains in the current environment.